Tesla: Disappointment Time Again?

Tesla (TSLA) usually announces its quarterly deliveries at the beginning of each new quarter, so with September coming to an end, an announcement could come early next week. And if history is any guide, Tesla will disappoint the way it usually does.

Even the bulls are getting ready for a miss. Baird's Ben Kallo, for one, wouldn't be surprised if Model 3 deliveries fall short--but would be buying the stock on any weakness. He explains why:

We speculate TSLA may be behind on the Model 3 ramp (potentially reporting 300-400 deliveries in Q3), although we would be aggressive buyers on any weakness. We believe Q3 will be the most challenging part of the Model 3 production ramp, and although we model 500 Model 3 deliveries, we think TSLA may be several weeks behind and likely missed its Q3 target of ~1,500 Model 3’s produced. While we acknowledge shares have appreciated ~60% YTD, we would be buyers on weakness caused by a minor delay in the production ramp, particularly considering few investors expected TSLA to deliver any Model 3s in 2017 at the beginning of the year.

Shares of Tesla are little changed at $339.55 at 9:52 a.m. today.

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