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Guess Who? Tesla Slumps as Model 3 Concerns Likely to Linger

Tesla (TSLA) is scheduled to report earnings after the close today, and investors are getting a jump on the selling that sometimes follows their release. But are short-termers missing the forest for the trees?

I'd bet that Loup Ventures' Gene Munster thinks they are. In a note published last night, he predicts that Tesla will produce fewer Model 3s than Wall Street expects during the fourth quarter of 2017, but doesn't seem too worried:

  • Tesla last updated Model 3 net reservations on Aug 2nd, when they stood at 455K.
  • For Dec-17 quarter, we’re expecting 5.6k Model 3 deliveries (Street at ~7k).
  • For 2018, we believe the Street expects Model 3 production of 150-175K vehicles.
  • While we believe Model 3 production will largely be a guessing game over the next few quarters, and will produce future disappointments, it’s important to note by now we believe Tesla has close to 475-500k net reservations for the Model 3, and we remain confident that Model 3’s value will stoke demand for the next several years.

In fact, Munster says that he believes "the TSLA story has the most upside in large cap tech over the next 5 years." Yes, a tech stock.

Just not today. Shares of Tesla have dropped 2.9% to $321.90 at 1:52 p.m. today, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) has declined 0.4% to $62.73.

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Read Again http://www.barrons.com/articles/guess-who-tesla-slumps-as-model-3-concerns-likely-to-linger-1509562707

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