OH, HELLO. I wasn’t expecting to see a Tesla booth at the Los Angeles Auto Show, much less meet the elusive Model 3, sitting front and center at the doorway of South Hall. The Silicon Valley carmaker shares few interests with other OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) on a strategic level, and even fewer with their dealers, so it generally forgoes the pleasure of their company.
There are many cars in this building but really only one story, and you, my mouthless red friend, are it. In the space of a decade, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has effectively reinvented the automobile, from propulsion to user interface, and helped kick-start the age of autonomy. The company’s influence, its ideas, can be seen in every corner of the L.A. Convention Center.
But the Model 3 ($35,000 to start, with 220-mile range) represents the greatest challenge yet: building a mid-priced car not in thousands of units but hundreds of thousands, every year, and not losing money doing it. Many fine automakers have shed blood on that hill.
You sure are a handsome little droid. I wonder what you’re like on the inside? Hmph. Locked. That figures.
To no one’s particular surprise, Model 3 production is behind schedule, partly due to automation hiccups in the company’s battery-making Gigafactory 1 in Reno, Nev., but mostly, if you ask me, because the schedule was wildly unrealistic. Typical product development times in the industry are around 40 months for vehicles with a fraction of the design equity of the Model 3. Its runway was much shorter, about 24 months, I estimate, assuming development began eight months before the design concept went public in April 2016. Software for some systems continues to evolve and the assembly-line robots are still honing their craft.
Even my new friend here— a show car almost certainly hand-fettled for the occasion —suffers from faults of panel alignment. Nothing personal, dude, nothing but love.
Tesla had initially projected ramping up to 5,000 units per week by the end of the year. The latest update pushes that target to the end of Q1. Those robots better get cracking. As of the end of November Tesla had built and sold a mere 712 units, according to InsideEVs. The company has about a half-million pre-orders in hand.
These developments—and the company’s prodigious burn rate, an estimated $8,000 per minute—have brought out the three-eyed ravens squawking auguries of doom. Oh, please. If Tesla were to run out of money today, by tomorrow Chinese and Arab investors would be dueling in the streets over it. The doors would still open. The Model 3 would still come out and, with the help of a half-million friends, would still hasten the rise of emission-free electrics, which was Mr. Musk’s objective all along. His ownership position may not make it to the promised land but the company will.
‘If Tesla ran out of money, Chinese and Arab investors would be dueling in the streets over it.’
Mr. Musk may yet drown in his own prescience. China’s lurch toward vehicle electrification—including steep mandates and penalties for noncompliance—has tipped the scales in favor of electric propulsion with two things the nascent industry needed most: lower costs through economies of scale and certainty of demand. Every global carmaker is pouring resources into electrification, which lives in harmony with other rising tech such as autonomy, immersive connectivity and sharing. The OEMs are coming and they’ve got their knives out.
Down the way from the Model 3, VW was making the case for its own people’s electric: the I.D. Crozz, unveiled for the first time in the U.S., with production set for 2020. The four-door hatch with crossover stance will be the first of 15 all-electric models from the freshly minted I.D. division by 2025, all based on its MEB platform.
While taller, the I.D. Crozz is anatomically similar to the Tesla: flat-floor mounted battery pack (83 kWh, up to 300-mile range, DC fast charging); fore and aft electric motors, totaling 302 hp; minimal front overhang, low scuttle, and short, kicked-up rear deck. Embedded in the transparent roof of the concept car are four hockey-puck sized sensors, the basis for the car’s semi-autonomous dimensions. VW said its I.D. Pilot self-driving system will enter production in 2025.
Over at the Jaguar stand visitors can have a look at a near-production i-PACE luxury electric crossover. It’s a witty, Brit-y riposte to Tesla’s Model X but with non-insane doors. The Jag’s face strikes me as a bit less strange, too, whereas the Model X looks like it’s wearing a zipper-lipped bondage mask.
The Jag’s prospective numbers include 400-hp all-wheel-drive; 0-60 mph in under 4 seconds; a 90-kWh battery pack with DC fast charging. The i-PACE will be built in Austria by the excellent coachbuilder Magna Steyr, with deliveries beginning the second half of year. It looks like a major winner.
BMW is also strolling toward innovation. The company brought its i Vision Dynamics concept, an all-electric “Gran Coupe” that anticipates an all-electric 5 Series model set for 2021. Also at the BMW stand was a sportier version of the i3—how hard can that be?—as well as a beautiful roadster rendition of the i8.
Of course, not everybody is disrupted, not just yet. Chevy rolled out two stupendous Corvette ZR1s, a coupe ($119,995) and a convertible ($123,995), each with a 755-hp supercharged V8 bursting through the hood. With a top speed of 212 mph, the ZR1 Coupe is the fastest ’Vette ever and is likely to go down as greatest of the front-engined Corvettes. The next-generation will put the engine behind the cockpit.
See, these are the good old days.
More in Gear & Gadgets
- Pagani Huayra Roadster: A Rare, Hand-Made HypercarNovember 30, 2017
- 2018 Chevrolet Traverse: Is a Bigger Crossover Always Better?November 22, 2017
- 2018 Porsche 911 GT2 RS: The Fastest Street-Car Ever?November 16, 2017
- 2018 Alfa Romeo Stelvio: The World’s Best-Looking SUV?November 2, 2017
- Chevy Bolt: Meet the First Practical, Mass-Market Electric VehicleOctober 19, 2017
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