Tesla Week: Model 3 Goal Of 5000 Per Week Doable? Guessing Game Begins

Credit: Brooke Crothers

Tesla Model 3 at Los Angeles Auto Show.

Can Tesla hit its production target of 5,000 Model 3s per week by end of March 2018? Speculation is off and running.

[For the week ending Sunday, December 17, 2017]

First, let's revisit what Tesla has said officially.

Based on what we know now, we currently expect to achieve a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018, recognizing that our production growth rate is like a stepped exponential, so there can be large forward jumps from one week to the next. We will provide an update when we announce Q4 production and delivery numbers in the first few days of January.

--Tesla Third Quarter 2017 Update (emphasis added)

The "first few days of January" are not far away. So, before we get that hard data from Tesla we have this from CleanTechnica:

There have now been multiple claims that Tesla staff members are telling Tesla customers that Tesla is sending out Model 3 configuration invites to batches of 5,000 at a time.

--"Is Tesla Model 3 Production Gliding Into 5,000 Cars A Week?" CleanTechnica, December 16, 2017

CleanTechnica goes on to analyze those claims, opining what may be accurate and what may not be.

We also have this report from Electrek.

In October, a few days before Tesla’s earnings and the announcement of the Model 3 production ramp-up delay, Taiwanese auto component maker Hota Industrial Mfg. Co announced that Tesla slashed its orders for Model 3 parts by 40% (5,000 per week to 3,000).

Now the same supplier, which makes gears and axles, told Taiwanese media that Tesla increased the demand for parts back to 5,000 units per week this month.

--"Tesla Model 3 production is increasing to 5,000 units per week, say suppliers" Electrek, December 14, 2017

Then there's this report which hazards a guess (via an investment bank) about Model 3 quarterly production in 2018.

And there were bits of not-so-positive Model 3 news, including a report about an investigation by the SEC and reports about the looming threat of China competition.

Tesla was under an SEC investigation related to the Model 3 and could still be, reported the Mercury News via the Probes Reporter.

The Palo Alto electric car maker’s process for selling the Model 3 — a $35,000 sedan aimed at the mass market — involved taking $1,000 deposits, for future delivery. Hundreds of thousands of would-be Tesla owners have put up money for the Model 3.

The SEC investigation into the company ended in May with no enforcement action taken.

--"Tesla was under federal investigation over Model 3, may still be, report says" Mercury News, December 14, 2017

The reason: the SEC believed "the company might have been 'making false statements of material fact or failing to disclose material facts concerning the company’s Model 3 vehicle.'"

The Mercury News, via the Probes Report, mentioned that there could "at least one other unresolved SEC probe."

I asked Tesla for comment but have yet to hear back.

The China threat will be an oft-repeated theme from here on out.

"Why China will beat U.S. in electric-car battle: urgency, regulations" from GreenCarReports, which cites a newsletter from Michael Dunne (as does the Wall Street Journal, which I cite below), of Dunne Consulting in Hong Kong.

"The country has two distinct advantages over the U.S. and other global players in the electric-vehicle market. First, upwardly mobile citizens in China's larger cities...would like to see blue skies again. Smog in metropolitan areas contains 'dangerous levels of particulate matter,' says Dunne...Second, Dunne notes China's ability to enact regulations 'with the stroke of a pen,' thanks to its somewhat centralized economy and single-party government."

Then we have report out Sunday from the Wall Street Journal. "The Fast and the Financed: China’s Well-Funded Auto Startups Race to Overtake Tesla" (subscription required). In addition to a quote from Michael Dunne -- that the next phase of the automobile industry is to "turn cars into 'iPads on wheels'” -- the Journal says that "more than a dozen Chinese startups want to make dinosaurs of incumbent auto makers."

The report goes on to cite some potential Tesla rivals such as the ES8 (a Model X challenger) with a "battery can be fully charged in one hour" and replete with battery-swapping technology "which can switch the car’s battery pack in under three minutes." The maker of the EV, NIO, raised $1 billion last month, the Journal said.

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Credit: Brooke Crothers

Tesla Model 3 at Los Angeles Auto Show.

Can Tesla hit its production target of 5,000 Model 3s per week by end of March 2018? Speculation is off and running.

[For the week ending Sunday, December 17, 2017]

First, let's revisit what Tesla has said officially.

Based on what we know now, we currently expect to achieve a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018, recognizing that our production growth rate is like a stepped exponential, so there can be large forward jumps from one week to the next. We will provide an update when we announce Q4 production and delivery numbers in the first few days of January.

--Tesla Third Quarter 2017 Update (emphasis added)

The "first few days of January" are not far away. So, before we get that hard data from Tesla we have this from CleanTechnica:

There have now been multiple claims that Tesla staff members are telling Tesla customers that Tesla is sending out Model 3 configuration invites to batches of 5,000 at a time.

--"Is Tesla Model 3 Production Gliding Into 5,000 Cars A Week?" CleanTechnica, December 16, 2017

CleanTechnica goes on to analyze those claims, opining what may be accurate and what may not be.

We also have this report from Electrek.

In October, a few days before Tesla’s earnings and the announcement of the Model 3 production ramp-up delay, Taiwanese auto component maker Hota Industrial Mfg. Co announced that Tesla slashed its orders for Model 3 parts by 40% (5,000 per week to 3,000).

Now the same supplier, which makes gears and axles, told Taiwanese media that Tesla increased the demand for parts back to 5,000 units per week this month.

--"Tesla Model 3 production is increasing to 5,000 units per week, say suppliers" Electrek, December 14, 2017

Then there's this report which hazards a guess (via an investment bank) about Model 3 quarterly production in 2018.

And there were bits of not-so-positive Model 3 news, including a report about an investigation by the SEC and reports about the looming threat of China competition.

Tesla was under an SEC investigation related to the Model 3 and could still be, reported the Mercury News via the Probes Reporter.

The Palo Alto electric car maker’s process for selling the Model 3 — a $35,000 sedan aimed at the mass market — involved taking $1,000 deposits, for future delivery. Hundreds of thousands of would-be Tesla owners have put up money for the Model 3.

The SEC investigation into the company ended in May with no enforcement action taken.

--"Tesla was under federal investigation over Model 3, may still be, report says" Mercury News, December 14, 2017

The reason: the SEC believed "the company might have been 'making false statements of material fact or failing to disclose material facts concerning the company’s Model 3 vehicle.'"

The Mercury News, via the Probes Report, mentioned that there could "at least one other unresolved SEC probe."

I asked Tesla for comment but have yet to hear back.

The China threat will be an oft-repeated theme from here on out.

"Why China will beat U.S. in electric-car battle: urgency, regulations" from GreenCarReports, which cites a newsletter from Michael Dunne (as does the Wall Street Journal, which I cite below), of Dunne Consulting in Hong Kong.

"The country has two distinct advantages over the U.S. and other global players in the electric-vehicle market. First, upwardly mobile citizens in China's larger cities...would like to see blue skies again. Smog in metropolitan areas contains 'dangerous levels of particulate matter,' says Dunne...Second, Dunne notes China's ability to enact regulations 'with the stroke of a pen,' thanks to its somewhat centralized economy and single-party government."

Then we have report out Sunday from the Wall Street Journal. "The Fast and the Financed: China’s Well-Funded Auto Startups Race to Overtake Tesla" (subscription required). In addition to a quote from Michael Dunne -- that the next phase of the automobile industry is to "turn cars into 'iPads on wheels'” -- the Journal says that "more than a dozen Chinese startups want to make dinosaurs of incumbent auto makers."

The report goes on to cite some potential Tesla rivals such as the ES8 (a Model X challenger) with a "battery can be fully charged in one hour" and replete with battery-swapping technology "which can switch the car’s battery pack in under three minutes." The maker of the EV, NIO, raised $1 billion last month, the Journal said.

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