Cherry pickers stand outside a newly constructed production tent at the Tesla Inc. manufacturing facility in Fremont, California. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
Tesla should announce its June quarter production and delivery numbers on Monday, July 2, or Tuesday, July 3. All eyes will be looking for Model 3 production data. Deliveries will be in the back seat, especially since there should be a large number of in-transit Model 3’s.
Given the heightened expectations and concerns about Model 3 production the announcement will almost assuredly include information on how it came close to or did produce 5,000 Model 3’s in the last week of the quarter. It could also provide extrapolated daily production in the last few days or how portions of its manufacturing process made the goal.
Since Elon Musk has fallen short of most of his manufacturing promises, investors are pretty numb to the company coming up short. It will take a significant shortfall, probably about 4,000 made per week, and little reassurance that the company can ramp production, for the stock to take a significant hit. I’d put the over/under around 4,500 per week and not much encouragement about hitting 5,000 anytime soon. I don’t see that happening as the company has pulled out all the stops to come as close as it can to the 5,000 bogey.
There are multiple estimates of how many Model 3’s Tesla was making at the end of June. Expectations seem to be around the mid-4,000 vehicles being produced. There is the potential that the company came close to if not exceeded 5,000 in the last week, or that burst production equates to 5,000 or more. However, if the company was going to make its 5,000 goal without going through unnatural acts it wouldn’t have opened up a production line in a parking lot under a tent a few weeks ago.
Estimates circle around 4,250 to 4,500 Model 3’s being built per week
There are Model 3 fans who are tracking VINs, or Vehicle Identification Numbers. One of them, Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet, is a Google Doc which contains a tremendous amount of data. While some of its analysis is based on Model 3 buyers inputting their VIN into it, the spreadsheet also uses VIN information provided from the NHTSA, or National Highway Transportation Safety Administration.
Its analysis shows that Tesla made about 4,250 Model 3’s per week for the last couple of weeks . Bloomberg also has a Model 3 tracker and its June 30 estimate was that 4,533 Model 3’s were being built per week.
Estimated Model 3 weekly production
Loup Ventures had one of its staff observe Tesla’s Fremont factory for three days and counted the number of trucks leaving to deliver cars. Based on what she saw Loup estimates that the company made about 4,300 Model 3’s in the last week with the potential of it being 4,900.
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