Is Tesla about to report record sales? Some on Wall Street say no - MarketWatch

Tesla Inc. stock has shot up nearly 20% this month thanks in part to hopes that the Silicon Valley car maker is about to announce a banner sales quarter.

Even analysts at Goldman Sachs, known Tesla TSLA, -0.16% bears, have put forth that possibility, although they cautioned it may be as good as it gets for the company this year.

This week, analysts at Evercore ISI came out on the other side of that bet, and analysts at UBS said they remain cautious even if Tesla does report strong sales.

The Evercore ISI analysts kept their rating on the stock at the equivalent of sell with a price target of $200, which would represent 10% downside to Friday prices.

“(We) expect a miss on Q2 deliveries/earnings and continue to see FY delivery midpoint guidance miss by ~10%,” the analysts, led by Arndt Ellinghorst, said in a note Thursday.

Tesla shares likely moved into a new range between $150 and $250, versus a previous range between $250 and $375, since “dreams” of 750,000 to 1 million annual unit sales by the early 2020s are now “lost,” the analysts said.

There is also downside risk around 10% to 15% to Evercore’s $200 price target “if automotive gross profit outlook deteriorates,” they said.

On Friday, UBS analysts led by Colin Langan said in a note that it “looks possible” that Tesla will report sales around 87,000 vehicles, which would be slightly below consensus.

“Moreover, we expect losses in the second half to increase as deliveries likely soften and the impact of pricing actions continues to weigh on margins,” they said. The analysts cut their price target on Tesla stock to $160, from $200, and kept their sell rating. Their new price target represents a 28% downside to Friday prices.

Tesla reports production and delivery numbers, its proxy for sales, a few calendar days after the end of the quarter. The recent uptick for the stock came largely as Chief Executive Elon Musk said the company had a “decent shot’ at a record-breaking deliveries in the second quarter.

Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report the delivery of 91,000 vehicles, including 74,100 Model 3 sedans and a nearly even split between sales of Model S and Model X units.

Tesla shares have lost 33% this year, contrasting with gains of around 17% and 14% for the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.36% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. DJIA, +0.24%

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