Tesla’s EVs Are Really Profitable. Why Its Stock Could Trade at $720. - Barron's

A Tesla Supercharger in Petaluma, Calif.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas lifted his Tesla price target Friday after the electric-vehicle pioneer reported another quarterly profit on Wednesday evening.

Despite the boost, Jonas still rates Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock the equivalent of Hold. Yet Gary Black, a former analyst, and current Tesla investor, sees shares trading at $720. They were recently trading at about $412.

Jonas took his price target to $360 from $333. “The most important narrative change in the world of EVs over the past year has been the precedent set by Tesla,” he wrote. The precedent is profits. Tesla is posting industry-leading gross profit margins—even when zero-emission. or ZEV, credits Tesla earns are backed out of reported numbers, the analyst notes.

ZEV credits are sold by Tesla to other auto makers that don’t sell a mandated quote of zero-emission cars in certain regions. The credits are a source of conflict on Wall Street. Some think Tesla depends too much on ZEV credits for profits. Others don’t. But the issue, as Jonas points out, is becoming moot. Tesla’s profits, even excluding the credits, is impressive.

General Motors ’ (GM) gross profit margin from automotive operations is about 10% in recent quarters, according to Jonas’ calculations. Tesla’s margin over the same span, calculated the same way, is about 20%.

Still, Jonas can’t bring himself to recommend the stock. But his target price implies a market value of roughly $335 billion, still making it the most valuable auto maker on the planet.

Black, the former Wall Street analyst, has a price target exactly double Jonas’ new mark: $720 a share. Black, who makes his financial models available on Twitter, was a leading tobacco analyst at Bernstein in the 1990s and is the former CEO of Aegon Asset Management.

Before the third-quarter earnings report, Black had a price target of $600 a share. He raised his target after Tesla reported profits better than the Street expected. He now sees Tesla’s automotive gross profit margins rising about 22% in 2020, 24% by 2025, and 26% by 2030.

What’s more, he believes EV penetration of the global automotive market will be 20% by 2025. That’s higher than what many Wall Street brokerages believe, but estimates are moving toward Black’s model.

With Tesla, there’s always a debate over valuation. Both Jonas and Black believe it deserves its place as the world’s most valuable auto maker—the question is how much more valuable than its rivals. Black’s target values the company at roughly $670 billion. The $335 billion gap between his and Jonas’ figures is big enough to drive GM, Toyota Motor (TM), and Ford Motor (F) through.

Tesla stock is having an incredible 2020. Shares are up about 410% year to date. Shares were down 3.3%, at $411.93, in recent trading. The S&P 500 was flat.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

Let's block ads! (Why?)